You’re being lied to
Written by John Teel.
This is kind of scary, but we’re all being lied to by our own brains.
Recently I watched a fantastic documentary on the human brain where I learned that our perception of reality is based on about 1% data and 99% assumptions.
Turns out the world is just too complex for our brains to fully perceive, and it would need to be about 600 times larger to do so.
Cue an engineering tradeoff…
Engineering is always about tradeoffs.
The solution engineered by evolution is for our brain to instead process only about 1% of the real world, and literally just make up stuff for the missing 99%.
Um. Yeah, seriously.
Of course, it doesn’t just randomly fill in the 99% with garbage. Your brain “makes up” the rest based on simulations and assumptions about what should be there.
A little bit scary? Yeah, kind of. Sounds a little too much like the Matrix!
This is exactly why optical illusions exist, and why humans tend to be horrible eye witnesses to crimes.
Thankfully, though, this strategy works pretty well most of the time!
It’s also a great example of how finding a “simple” solution to a complex problem is usually the most scalable.
Why use a supercomputer when all you need is a microprocessor? Or why use a microprocessor if all you need is a microcontroller?
I find it interesting that a mistake I see most entrepreneurs make, myself included, is putting too much confidence in our assumptions.
This is why I’m always pushing for you to collect more data before you spend a lot of money and time working on something that is based purely on your own assumptions.
Your brain is good at making mostly accurate assumptions about the world, but there are two cases where it fails most often:
First, is when you are doing something new for the first time.
In this case your brain just doesn’t have the necessary prior experiences to make accurate predictions.
The other case is when you make assumptions about what a crowd or market will do.
Remember, each of us is going through life working on 99% assumptions based on our own previous experiences.
That’s a lot of unknowns when you’re talking about an entire market made up of individual people each operating on unique assumptions based on their own personal experiences.
I know my wife pretty well, but after 18 years my assumptions about what she thinks are frequently wrong.
Turns out we really do create our own reality!
The “unknowns” become exponentially greater when it comes to predicting what a large number of different people will do.
This is what happens when you develop a new product without collecting enough data.
And I don’t mean demographic data. That’s usually boring and useless.
I mean data like who, specifically, will give you money for your product, how much will they give you, and how many of these people are really out there?
Or, what exactly do they need from your solution, and what will they use it for that you didn’t think of yet?
That’s incredibly useful data that I guarantee will be different from your assumptions.
There are lots of other types of assumptions that can get you into trouble when it comes to creating and selling a new electronic product.
For example, unless you’ve fully developed an entire commercial electronic product before, had it certified, and mass manufactured, you are working on countless assumptions.
Considering most of these assumptions will ultimately prove to be wrong, I don’t think the odds are in your favor.
This is why I suggest you stop making so many assumptions. You need more data and knowledge to have a chance.
Study your market, test the product-market fit, and talk to potential customers.
I know, I know, talking with customers is scary and may not be much fun, but trust me it’s worth your effort.
But you also need to learn more from those that have already done whatever it is you are trying to do now.
Your brain works on assumptions because it has a limited capacity due to size and power usage.
One brain is powerful, but lots of brains working together with a variety of prior experiences can do truly wondrous things.
Luckily, today you can connect globally with lots of other people who have brains filled with the data your brain may lack.
My advice is to always strive to replace your assumptions with real data and knowledge as fast as possible.
One of the best ways to do that is to surround yourself with people that have done before what you seek to do now.
This is the reason I created the Hardware Academy for those developing new electronic products.
